It is likely that the U.S. will see a wave of
influenza during the coming fall and winter more severe than any in
living memory. Businesses like every other institution will be
affected. Business income is not only crucial for owners, it is also
crucial for employees and business services are crucial for
consumers as well.
While there are many articles on Swine Flu and a vaccine is in
production for it, you should know that the first deliveries of H1N1
vaccine are not going to arrive until mid-October. Those will go to
the high risk people. Healthcare workers, people with chronic
illnesses.
The general public--which is most of us will not see
a vaccine until November or December. Roughly 15 days after the
shot, we will have immunity. That means you and I may not be safe
from this virus until December or January..
What we need to do, is to limit the spread of the
disease as well as we can until immunizations have covered the
population. The U.S. has ordered 600,000,000 doses, enough for
everyone in the country to get the two required shots. (We may only
need 1 so we'll get them a bit sooner than expected.)
What follows is an easy to understand overview of what is
likely to occur and how you and your employees can protect
yourselves, your families and your livelihoods.
In a normal
year, the seasonal influenza variety which is prevalent
bounces from one susceptible person to the next as shown by
the graphic at the right. If no one is nearby to catch it
before the sick person's contagious period ends, the chain
of infection stops.
In normal years, there are enough people that are immune because they've
had similar influenza viruses before or got their yearly
vaccination, that the seasonal flu does not cause a
pandemic.
Swine Flu: A Different Situation
What is
different with Swine Flu (H1N1) is that almost no one has
immunity.* This means that everyone can get it and pass it
along. Because this swine flu is a 'novel' virus, one that
people haven't been exposed to before, it can spread like
wildfire across the population.
At this point, H1N1 is not very deadly which is very fortunate.
(*Maybe 1/3 of people born before 1957--have only enough immunity to keep them
from getting severe complications--probably not enough
immunity to keep them from getting H1N1 or passing it.)
Two at Once?
Depending on
the timing of swine flu and the normal seasonal flu, we
could face the two of them together. Though both passing
through a community at the same time is unlikely, it is
possible. What is more likely is a Swine Flu wave followed
by a seasonal flu wave, followed by another wave of the two
together.
No matter how it comes, business owners are likely to face trouble from
staff and customer illnesses on a scale that few living people
have seen before.
Swine flu seems to strike young people
harder and spreads quickly through schools--that means a
parent will need to stay home as a caregiver which adds to
the burden on families and businesses.
School
Outbreaks
Outbreaks will begin to occur where groups come together
which had been separate before. The first will be the
colleges and public schools which have early starts. Within
3-5 weeks the flu will be hitting its peak. In 1957,
absentee rates in some schools reached 50%. This will impact
your business in many ways. The CDC (Center for Disease
Control) recommends one caregiver for one person. A person
with the flu is usually out of action for about one week.
Many of your workers with school aged kids will miss a week
caring for sick children. Your floor traffic will be
affected in a similar way, half your customers will be
no-shows, and they will be spending money on prescriptions
and over the counter products to ease flu symptoms. Unless
you are selling those products, you can expect a downturn in
business.
Business Outbreaks
Two to three weeks after the virus peaks in the schools, it
will peak in businesses. The rapid spread in young people is
followed up with a spread to families and the adults who
cared for them. The more people in a household, the more likely
it will be for one of them to become infected. Your business will
short-staffed as the illness spreads across the adult
population. Adults can pass the virus from one day before
they show symptoms until about a day after their fever
subsides. Recent studies say that a person is infectious for
more than a week. Children are contagious for a slightly longer
period. Many will get the flu from people who show no signs
of being ill.
A
Pause...and Then...
By Thanksgiving or thereabouts, the fall outbreak will quiet
down and things will be somewhat back to normal. Then comes
the normal flu season, and the normal seasonal flu will
spread through the population again. This will not be as bad
as the Swine Flu because many have some immunity from
previous similar influenza viruses.
A Deadly
Return?
Some pandemic flu viruses made a return in January-February
becoming more deadly than before. If you imagine that the
virus crossed the ‘checkerboard’ of people only touching the
white squares on the first round, it then can cross the
board again, this time on the black squares.
In the end, not everyone gets Swine Flu. Some authorities
say possibly 60% of the population. The death rate of the
virus is low now, about 1 in 1,000. 40 in 1,000 need
admitted to the hospital. While that may not
seem disastrous, your business is going to suffer a lot of
absences as well as a decrease in business up until spring.
Keep Your Building Well Ventilated
Sneezing, Coughing, and even talking can put droplets with viruses into
the air. Neither HEPA filters nor carbon filters are
effective at filtering out the virus. Keep windows open to
disperse viruses and reduce the chance of infection.
Increase Interpersonal Distance
The greater the distance between people, the less the chance of spreading
infections. At minimum, employees should stay 1 meter
(roughly a yard or arm's length) away from each other and
away from customers.
Where possible separate employee work areas by moving desks, and separate
employee work spaces. Don't let people work on the same
computer or if you have to do so, follow the clean surfaces
guidelines below.
Try to avoid group meetings and if you need group meetings for business
purposes, pick larger rooms.
Clean Surfaces Regularly
Influenza viruses can remain potent on surfaces from 2-8 hours.
If possible and feasible, clean work areas between customers. Always clean all
work surfaces when another employee takes over a work
station. This includes tabletops, counters, computer
keyboards and buttons on computers or screens.
Also clean drawer handles, pencils and pens, calculators---anything that
has been touched along with flat surfaces where viruses
could have fallen.
Pay particular attention to door knobs and machines such as copiers and
fax machines which are used by multiple people.
Use standard disinfectants according to directions such as household
cleaners, chlorine bleach or simply soap and water. Alcohol
cleaners are also effective.
Encourage Respiratory Etiquette
Among Your Employees
Everyone should cover their coughs and sneezes. Put tissues into
no-touch waste containers immediately, and wash their hands
with soap and water or an alcohol-based sanitizer
immediately thereafter. Hand washing should be 20 seconds
long, and alcohol-based sanitizers should be rubbed into the
hands until they have evaporated.
Encourage your employees to get
vaccinated
You should encourage your employees, and your family to
get vaccinated for both the seasonal and swine flu when
vaccinations are available.
Currently supplies are
limited for both seasonal flu and H1N1. You may not be able
to find a shot until later this month or well into December.
You cannot force employees to get vaccinations.
Delay Paper Passing
Office settings often require papers be passed between employees. If
possible have employees put papers to be transferred into a
holding bin overnight. Any viruses on the papers should die
by the next morning. One individual with cleaned hands can
take them to their destinations. Offices with mailbox areas
can simply set a policy of only picking up mail the first
thing in the morning. Any mail placed in mailboxes during
the day sits overnight whether it is intra-office or postal
mail.
All Sick Employees Should Go/Stay
Home
The current recession puts intense pressure on employees to stay at work
even when they are ill. "If I stay home, they'll find out
that I'm expendable."
Fear of losing their employment will keep your staff at work even
when they should be staying home. By the time an employee
feels symptoms of the flu, he/she has been contagious for 24
hours. A sick employee should not "finish out the day."
Employees should check themselves for symptoms before coming to work.
They should stay home if they have flu symptoms. If they
begin to experience symptoms at work, a non-high risk
employee should give them a mask and plastic gloves, They
should put on the mask and gloves, take any daily use
personal items and go home immediately.
Employees should stay home until they have no fever--without using fever
reducers like acetaminophen (Tylenol.) They are contagious
until their temperature returns to normal--about 1
week-10days. Unfortunately not everyone who gets the flu
gets a temperature!
Symptoms of Swine Flu are discussed in the videos below.
